I woke up this morning to the news that Democrat Conor Lamb is the presumptive winner in the PA-18 special election. For some reason, people think this means that there’s going to be some kind of massive blue wave in November that will utterly annihilate the Republican Party up and down the ballot across the entire country.
That’s just ridiculous.
It was just one race in a little district in Pennsylvania that won’t even exist a few months from now when the congressional map gets rewritten. Big deal! I mean, sure, Republicans poured in over $10 million, outspending Lamb by almost 17 to 1. And, yes, Donald Trump campaigned for the Republican candidate and even possibly timed his doomed steel tariffs to appeal to Pennsylvanian steel workers. And, yes, the GOP went all out to smear Conor Lamb, a Marine and former assistant U.S. attorney, by calling him unamerican and godless. And, yes, it’s a heavily gerrymandered red district. But none of that matters because there is no blue wave building. Believe me.
It’s not like of the 70 special election in 2017, 50% of them resulted in a Republican held seat flipping to the Democrats. Well, that’s actually exactly what happened. Still, it’s not like there was an overall shift to the left in the electorate large enough to cost Republicans control of the House. Wait, in 2017 the shift was 10 points nationwide. In 2018, the average shift is up to 24 points for an overall average between 2017-2018 of 13 points. Well, OK, that would be a wave if it were anything other than a total fluke. Which it isn’t. Believe me.
Let’s be serious here. That can’t be real. In 2006, the Democratic wave was 8 points and it was devastating. In 2010, the Republican wave was 7 points and it was hailed as a “message from the people”. A 13 point or higher wave would be a message from God and I’m an atheist so clearly that can’t possibly happen.
For a double digit wave election to occur in these politically divided times you’d have to have a president so universally despised by the left, independents, and even right wing moderates that they would resoundingly vote against him. He’d have to be so hateful and incompetent that anyone that worked for him would have their integrity compromised within months, assuming they had any integrity to begin with. The scandals would have be nonstop.
Further, you’d have to have this president leading a party so corrupt that even though his unfitness for office and multiple crimes are out in the open for the country to see, they’d turn a blind eye in a reckless pursuit of a cruel and depraved agenda designed to benefit the ultra wealthy explicitly at the expense of the poor and middle class. White nationalists would have to be marching in the street and running as Republicans.
If all of that were true, the voters would be furious beyond anything we’ve ever seen and Republicans would be retiring in record numbers. Oh wait. They already are.
Holy shit. There’s a blue wave coming in November.